Between vision and reality: The Swiss perspective of the future of energy

Once synonymous with stability and efficiency, Switzerland’s energy supply is now the subject of growing concern and uncertainty. According to the recent Credit Suisse Worry Barometer 2023, 26 per cent of respondents express concerns about energy issues, making this the fifth-greatest concern of the Swiss population.1 In addition, the energy crisis, triggered by a poorly thought-out energy transition policy and compounded by the war in Ukraine, has pushed the topic of energy even more to the forefront, both in the minds of the public and in the strategic plans of companies. Although the immediate crisis may appear to be over, some monumental long-term challenges remain.

Besides ensuring the fundamental security of its energy supply, Switzerland faces the daunting task of decarbonisation. Despite an impressive carbon footprint thanks to a high proportion of hydroelectric power and nuclear energy, the challenges are enormous. The federal government’s Energy Strategy 2050 is targeting a gradual phase out of nuclear energy and a revamp of the energy system by 2050, with the aim of ensuring supply security and substantially increasing the proportion of renewable energy.2 It must be pointed out here that the exit from nuclear energy undermines the aim of supply security, meaning there is an inherent contradiction in the energy strategy.

The reality is therefore complex and challenging: Depending on the scenario, nearly half of Switzerland’s electricity needs will be met with new renewable energies by 20503 – an ambitious target that is currently a long way off. Switzerland’s electricity shortfall becomes particularly apparent in winter, when demand for energy increases and energy production decreases. This problem is exacerbated by the current and planned decommissioning of nuclear power stations. Furthermore, the expansion of renewable energies is progressing more slowly than desired and hydroelectric power is reaching its limits in terms of expansion potential. In addition, the expected large population growth in the years ahead is compounding the situation by further increasing electricity demand.

Another contentious issue is the growing dependency on electricity imports, especially during the winter months. To make matters worse, some European countries, including Germany, are abandoning nuclear energy, and existing large power stations are reaching their operating limits. As a result, the Swiss strategy regarding electricity imports is increasingly precarious.

To gain a broad understanding of these complex issues and gauge what the population thinks about them, Deloitte conducted a survey of 1,900 people in Switzerland. The results of this representative survey, which shed light on the current challenges and the upcoming decisions on Switzerland’s energy policy, form a substantial part of our analysis and discussion in the rest of this article.

Swiss opinions on the energy transition: Preferences, resistance and knowledge gaps

Preferences: Securing electricity supply

The question of “how” to secure Switzerland’s electricity supply for the next few decades shows a wide range of attitudes among the population. Large-scale solar panels on rooftops or similar surfaces are regarded as the most important option, with an approval rate of 63 per cent, closely followed by the expansion of existing reservoirs and hydroelectric power stations, supported by 53 per cent of respondents. In contrast, only around 30 per cent support the construction of new nuclear power stations and the maintenance of existing ones, with similar reticence towards wind energy.

The preferred energy sources – solar panels and hydroelectric power – suggest a strong awareness of environmental concerns. However, the limitations of these options cannot be ignored. Solar panels depend on the season, the weather and the time of day; in summer, when demand is lower, they generate surplus electricity and lead to high system costs. In turn, the expansion potential of hydroelectric power in Switzerland is very limited.⁵

The moderate support for wind energy and nuclear power indicates that although these energy sources are the subject of discussion, they are not fully accepted by most of the population. Regarding nuclear power, it is noticeable that women are much more sceptical than men. Acceptance also increases with age. Interestingly, however, the same also applies to solar panels. Approval of this option increases with age. For instance, only 50 per cent of 18- to 34-year-olds support solar panels installed across rooftops or other installations, compared with 69 per cent among over-50s.

In contrast, the low approval level for gas- and oil-fired power stations shows a clear rejection of fossil fuels. They would also increase the dependency on imported raw materials.

Electricity imports, an essential part of the energy strategy, do not enjoy widespread support among the population. A mere ten per cent are in favour of importing electricity. This underlines the strong desire for an energy policy with independence and self-sufficiency. This attitude could stem from long-term concerns regarding the reliability and sustainability of energy imports, particularly in a geopolitically unstable environment. Furthermore, neighbouring countries from which Switzerland sources electricity face similar challenges in terms of energy security. Scepticism about the reliability of electricity imports in times of high demand, especially in winter, is therefore understandable. An additional question confirms this. Only 35 per cent of respondents believe that Switzerland’s neighbours would continue to supply the contractually agreed electricity imports in the event of a Europe-wide electricity shortage. Past global crises, such as the Covid pandemic, have exposed the limitations of international solidarity. In times of profound crisis, many countries prioritise their own security over that of their neighbours.

Resistance: Feasibility of large-scale energy security projects

In Switzerland, expansion of electricity production through large-scale projects is key to supply security. However, this expansion frequently meets stiff resistance, often from “building absolutely nothing anywhere near anything” (“banana”) groups, that use lengthy legislative proceedings and blockades to delay projects, derail them and scare off investors.⁶

Objections and protests by interest groups, particularly by the so-called “nimbys” (“not in my backyard”), pose a further challenge. They represent an attitude that, while not being against infrastructure expansion in principle, they emphatically reject it when it affects them directly and when projects are in their own “backyard”. The installation of wind turbines is a prime example.

The survey results on the acceptance of wind turbines nears homes illustrate this common “nimby” attitude. Only five per cent support a distance of less than 500 metres from homes, whereas 58 per cent want a distance of 1,000 metres or more. The closer wind turbines are to homes, the less they are accepted. While this may not constitute a major obstacle in countries with lots of space and low population density, it is a serious problem in densely populated Switzerland. If the majority want a distance of at least 1,000 metres and are politically active, sites in densely populated cantons such as Zurich will be barely feasible. In addition, many potential locations for wind farms could end up in tourist areas, which is another stumbling block to implementing such projects and would meet considerable resistance.

Legislative measures are one possible way of countering the opposition to large-scale projects in the energy industry. This could mean restricting the opportunities for objections and speeding up proceedings. However, there is the question of whether most people agree with such an approach. When asked about the possibility of objections in order to implement renewable energy projects more quickly, 50 per cent support this measure, 30 per cent reject it and 20 per cent have no opinion. Interestingly, 59 per cent of men approve of restrictions, compared with just 42 per cent of women.

Therefore, the situation for new turbines looks likely to remain difficult. Involving the population, addressing people’s worries and concerns, and an evidence-based debate are crucial for the better execution of energy security projects. This must be based on sound scientific and economic analyses rather than populism or ideology.

Knowledge gaps: A greater need for clarification

In tandem with this, it is also important to educate the population about these often technically complex issues. There is a clear information and knowledge deficit, as shown by the knowledge questions in our survey.

The respondents were asked individual knowledge questions about energy topics and asked to answer “true” or “false”. These questions covered topics such as solar and wind energy, permanent disposal sites for nuclear waste, and the carbon footprint of Swiss electricity production:

• Only 23 per cent of respondents are aware that solar panels and wind turbines adversely affect electricity grid stability, whereas a majority of 56 per cent assume the opposite.⁷
• Solar panels and wind turbines provide electricity reliably and predictably all year long are correctly deemed as “false” by 40 per cent of respondents “false”, while 46 per cent classify this statement as “true”.⁸
• Only 19 per cent of respondents know that a location for permanent disposal of nuclear waste (the Nördlich Lägern region in the canton of Zurich) has already been designated for Switzerland.⁹
• Only 17 per cent of respondents are aware that Swiss electricity production is now almost 100 per cent carbon-neutral, while 51 per cent mistakenly believe that this was not the case.¹⁰

The survey results show a significant gap between the level of knowledge among the general public and the actual situation and facts relating to energy issues. This discrepancy, compounded by the complexity of the topic, superficial media reporting and political influence, underscores the need for improved awareness and education.

Conclusion

The ambivalent attitude and the lack of any real desire for a solution among the Swiss population reflect the long-standing uncertainty in Swiss electricity policy.

Stepping up information and education campaigns: We recommend that policymakers and energy companies invest in extensive information campaigns and education initiatives. The aim should be to create a thorough understanding of energy issues based on scientific and economic analyses free of ideology. This is crucial to bringing about a successful, technology-neutral energy transition in Switzerland and enabling the population to make informed decisions.

Pursuing a combined approach to a carbon-neutral energy supply: Promoting carbon-neutral energy production that remains reliable even in the face of potential shortages during the winter months is crucial.

Although hydroelectric power has limited expansion potential, it should be a priority in the energy strategy, at least in the short term. As a central component of the energy supply, hydroelectric power provides predictable supply and is positively received by much of the population. In addition, its expansion is a major aim of the overall energy decree,11 which is being debated in the 2023 winter session as part of the acceleration decree.12

At the same time, the potential of new renewable energies must be explored without ignoring the challenges, especially in the case of large-scale projects. Protection of unspoiled landscapes and biodiversity are common arguments against projects of this kind, particularly large-scale projects such as solar panels or visually prominent systems such as wind turbines. Whereas solar power cannot make up for the electricity shortfall in winter, solar panels on rooftops and façades should be regarded as part of the overall solution. They enjoy widespread public approval and are also taken into account in the overall decree.

Nuclear energy should be supported for the provision of significant base-load energy, as it is an energy source with reasonable public acceptance, low carbon emissions and considerable potential for expansion. Although this is not yet included in the overall decree, it should become a key part of a solution-focused debate in the medium term.

Consideration of costs, risks and technological diversity in energy policy: Balanced consideration of costs, particularly in the use of solar panels,[3] is of central importance when planning the future of energy in Switzerland. It is therefore important to consider the risks of uncertain and volatile technologies and to hold an impartial discussion about technologies in order to prevent destabilising the energy supply.

Imported energy to help ensure a secure energy supply
Despite the political desire to expand energy production, this cannot be achieved overnight. Even if new energy facilities are planned and approved, the ongoing population growth and the rapidly increasing electrification of other forms of energy (such as for the expansion of electric mobility) will likely result in higher imports in the short to medium term. An electricity agreement with the EU could provide greater legal certainty and supply security in electricity supply contracts here, especially in the event of an energy shortage.

1. https://www.gfsbern.ch/de/news/credit-suisse-sorgenbarometer-2023/
2. https://www2.deloitte.com/ch/de/pages/energy-and-resources/articles/bottlenecks-in-restructuring-swiss-energy-supply.html
3. https://www.bfe.admin.ch/bfe/de/home/politik/energieperspektiven-2050-plus.html
4.  https://www.axpo.com/ch/de/ueber-uns/medien-und-politik/powerswitcher.html
5. Für weitere Details bezüglich national bedeutende Wasserkraftwerksprojekte siehe https://www.parlament.ch/de/services/news/Seiten/2023/20230314144158356194158159038_bsd121.aspx
6. https://www.avenir-suisse.ch/von-bananas-und-nimbys/
7. https://www.swissgrid.ch/de/home/about-us/strategy/strategy.html
https://www.frankfurt-university.de/de/newsmodule/pressemitteilungen/stabile-stromnetze-trotz-erneuerbarer-energien/
8. https://nfp-energie.ch/en/projects/1003/
9. https://www.nzz.ch/schweiz/atomendlager-so-erlaeutert-die-nagra-ihren-entscheid-ld.1702275
10. https://www.bfe.admin.ch/bfe/de/home/versorgung/statistik-und-geodaten/energiestatistiken/elektrizitaetsstatistik.html
11. https://www.parlament.ch/de/services/news/Seiten/2023/20230926104211456194158159038_bsd057.aspx
12. https://www.are.admin.ch/are/de/home/raumentwicklung-und-raumplanung/raumplanungsrecht/erneuerbare-energien/beschleunigungsvorlage.html
13. https://www.axpo.com/ch/de/ueber-uns/medien-und-politik/powerswitcher.html